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Picknexo · Review
Published July 12, 2026
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Updated: July 12, 2026 | PickNexo
Crypto markets are unusually calm today despite a fresh round of geopolitical stress. Bitcoin is trading around $63,800 to $64,000, Ethereum is near $1,800, XRP is around $1.09, and Solana is near $76 to $77, based on live price references from CoinDesk, Cointelegraph and Decrypt.
The biggest story is that Bitcoin is not reacting the way it did earlier this year. CoinDesk reported that the United States launched another round of strikes on Iran and that Tehran again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. Even so, Bitcoin and Ether barely moved.
That muted reaction matters. It suggests crypto traders may already be pricing in a long period of geopolitical noise, or that weekend liquidity is too thin for a clear cross-asset signal. Either way, Monday’s oil-market open will be important. If crude gaps higher while Bitcoin holds steady, traders may view BTC’s resilience as a constructive sign.
At the same time, Bitcoin’s internal debates are heating up. BIP-110, a controversial proposal to restrict non-financial data on Bitcoin, is approaching a deadline with almost no miner support. Meanwhile, analysts are debating whether Bitcoin is entering the late stage of its bear market or simply pausing before another leg lower.
Bitcoin traded around $63,800 after the U.S. launched its third round of strikes on Iran this week. CoinDesk reported that Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed “until further notice,” but major crypto assets showed only fractional daily moves.
The key test comes Monday. If Brent crude opens sharply higher and Bitcoin still holds the $63,000 to $64,000 zone, traders may interpret that as improved market resilience. If oil spikes and BTC quickly loses support, the market could return to defensive mode.
For now, the signal is constructive but not decisive. Bitcoin is holding up, but the market still has to digest the broader macro reaction.
Ether is also calm, trading near $1,800 and up modestly on the week. Solana is weaker among the majors, near $76, while XRP is around $1.09 and Dogecoin remains close to $0.07.
Solana’s relative weakness is worth watching. It remains one of the most important high-beta crypto assets, and if risk appetite improves, SOL often rebounds quickly. If Bitcoin holds but Solana lags, that may suggest investors still prefer safer crypto exposure rather than aggressive rotation into altcoins.
For now, the market’s message is caution with selective resilience.
Bitcoin’s technical governance debate is also back in focus. CoinDesk reported that BIP-110, a proposal to temporarily restrict non-financial data on Bitcoin, is approaching an early-August deadline with miner support still near zero.
Michael Saylor and Adam Back both came out against the proposal. Their concern is not that spam is irrelevant, but that changing consensus rules to invalidate currently valid transactions could create a more dangerous precedent than the spam itself.
According to CoinDesk, miner signaling has not risen above roughly 1% and is currently at zero in the active period. Node adoption is also in the low single digits. That means BIP-110 is unlikely to change Bitcoin broadly. More likely, it would create a small minority chain if backers push forward.
This episode highlights Bitcoin’s core strength and weakness at the same time: it is extremely hard to change. That protects the network from rushed governance decisions, but it also makes controversial policy fixes nearly impossible without broad social agreement.
Cointelegraph highlighted analysis from Real Vision’s Jamie Coutts suggesting Bitcoin may be approaching the second half, or later stage, of its bear-market cycle.
Late-stage bear markets are difficult because they can feel boring rather than dramatic. Prices stop collapsing, but rallies also fail to gain strong follow-through. Investors become exhausted, liquidity thins, and the market waits for a reason to reprice higher.
That may describe the current environment. Bitcoin has stabilized near $64,000, but it has not confirmed a durable uptrend. The market needs stronger ETF inflows, improving spot demand and a calmer macro backdrop before the late-bear-market thesis becomes more convincing.
Bitcoin treasury companies remain under pressure. CoinDesk and Decrypt reported that Empery Digital sold 1,400 BTC, roughly half its stack, for about $87.1 million. The company plans to use proceeds for an AI data center project.
Empery still holds more than 1,500 BTC, but it said it does not plan to accumulate more and may sell additional Bitcoin if opportunities arise. That makes it different from committed treasury buyers like Strategy.
For Bitcoin, the risk is that weaker treasury companies become sources of supply. The offset is that the market may need to clear these weaker structures before a healthier accumulation phase can begin.
Stablecoins remain one of the strongest long-term narratives in crypto. Circle received final approval from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish Circle National Trust, a federally supervised national trust bank.
Circle’s approval comes at a time when stablecoin competition is intensifying. Open USD, USDC, USDT, bank-linked stablecoins and tokenized deposits are all trying to define the future of digital settlement.
The key point is that stablecoins are moving closer to mainstream finance. Even if Bitcoin trades sideways, regulated digital dollar infrastructure continues to grow.
U.S. policy also continues to favor private stablecoins over a government-issued digital dollar. CoinDesk reported that a four-year ban on a U.S. central bank digital currency is set to become law through a housing bill, even though President Donald Trump refused to sign the broader legislation.
The ban prevents the Federal Reserve from issuing a digital dollar until the end of 2030. The Fed was not actively preparing to launch a CBDC, but the provision is still politically meaningful.
For crypto, the implication is clear: Washington is leaving more room for private stablecoin issuers. Circle, Paxos, PayPal, Tether-linked competitors and future bank-issued stablecoins may all benefit from a policy environment where a Fed-issued digital currency is off the table.
This does not remove regulatory risk. Stablecoin issuers will still face reserve, custody, AML and consumer-protection requirements. But it does clarify the direction of U.S. policy: private digital dollars are favored over public digital dollars.
DeFi security is also in focus after Bonzo Lend suffered a major oracle-related exploit on Hedera. CoinDesk’s latest crypto news list highlighted the incident, and Cointelegraph reported that the protocol lost about $9 million after a manipulated oracle update inflated the value of SAUCE collateral.
This matters because DeFi lending relies on price data. If the price feed is wrong, the protocol can treat weak collateral as valuable and allow attackers to borrow real assets against fake value.
The broader lesson is that DeFi risk is not only about code audits. It is also about oracle design, third-party dependencies, circuit breakers, incident response and conservative risk parameters.
AI and blockchain security are starting to overlap in more serious ways. CoinDesk reported that AI helped identify an Ethereum bug that could have taken validators offline, but human researchers still had to verify the issue.
The story also connects to a larger trend. AI is pulling capital toward data centers and compute infrastructure, but it is also becoming a tool inside crypto security, trading, monitoring and compliance.
For Ethereum and other major networks, AI-assisted auditing could become part of the standard security stack. But humans will still need to validate findings, prioritize fixes and manage disclosure.
CoinDesk’s latest market feed also highlighted that the crypto IPO market has stalled as capital rotates toward AI and macro uncertainty weighs on risk appetite.
The slowdown does not mean crypto businesses are dead. Circle’s bank approval, tokenized equities, stablecoins and custody regulation show continued infrastructure growth. But equity investors are more selective now. They want durable revenue, regulatory clarity and a business model that does not depend only on token prices.
For crypto founders, the market is sending a clear message: infrastructure and compliance are more investable than hype.
Even with weaker crypto IPO appetite, tokenization remains a strong long-term theme. Recent reports from Cointelegraph and CoinDesk point to expanding tokenized equities, Bitcoin-backed credit experiments and institutional settlement rails.
This matters because tokenization gives crypto a role outside native coins. Stocks, bonds, funds, credit products and real-world assets can all benefit from faster settlement, broader access and programmable ownership if the legal structure is sound.
The opportunity is large, but it will not be easy. Custody, disclosure, redemption rights, investor protections and jurisdictional rules all need to be clear. Still, tokenized finance remains one of the most credible long-term crypto narratives.
The first signal is Monday’s oil open. If crude spikes because of Hormuz risk and Bitcoin still holds near $64,000, that would be a meaningful resilience signal.
The second signal is Bitcoin’s $62,000 to $65,000 range. A breakout above $65,000 would improve momentum, while a loss of $62,000 would weaken the recovery.
The third signal is BIP-110. The proposal currently has almost no miner support, but the debate shows how sensitive Bitcoin governance remains.
The fourth signal is ETF and Coinbase Premium data. Bitcoin needs sustained U.S. spot demand to turn stabilization into an uptrend.
The fifth signal is AI capital rotation. More treasury companies selling crypto to fund AI infrastructure would pressure sentiment.
The sixth signal is stablecoin regulation. Circle’s trust bank approval and the CBDC ban both support private stablecoin infrastructure.
Crypto markets are calm today, but the calm is not empty. Bitcoin is holding near $64,000 even after fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, Ethereum is steady around $1,800, and Solana is near $76.
The short-term picture is cautiously constructive. Bitcoin did not break on new geopolitical pressure, whale demand has improved recently, and the market appears less fragile than it was in late June.
The medium-term picture is still uncertain. BIP-110 shows that Bitcoin governance debates can become noisy, AI continues to compete for capital, and weak treasury companies may still sell BTC.
The long-term picture remains more constructive. Stablecoin regulation, tokenized finance, AI-assisted security, custody oversight and institutional settlement rails all point to crypto becoming deeper financial infrastructure rather than only speculative trading.
For investors, patience is still required. Bitcoin has stabilized, but it has not fully recovered. For the industry, the message is clearer: the next phase of crypto will be shaped by resilience, regulation, security and real financial use cases.
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
Sources: CoinDesk, CoinDesk, CoinDesk, CoinDesk, CoinDesk, CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Cointelegraph, Cointelegraph, Decrypt.
